In the past, when America embraced a philosophy
of Laissez Faire, the government did little to monitor and control
the economy. After the depression, however, that philosophy changed
radically. Today we all have come to understand that one of the
federal governments most important roles is regulating and ensuring
the stability of the economy.
The government has two major ways of doing
this. The government can enact fiscal policy
changes or they can enact monetary policy
changes.
Fiscal Policy - The power
of the federal government to tax and spend in order to achieve its
goals for the economy.
Monetary Policy - Programs that
try to increase or decrease the nations level of business by
regulating the supply of money and credit.
What both of these policy options have as a
goal is increasing or decreasing the level of business activity. It
is most always preferable to have a productive growing economy but an
economy can also be too productive. In that case the government may
enact policies to slow down the economy.
In order to understand the functioning of these
two policies we must again revisit the concept of inflation.
Remember, inflation is when the value of money goes down. This means
that it costs more money to buy products. Think of the economy in
terms of supply and demand; the more money there is out there being
spent, the less the money is worth. The supply is high, thus the
value is comparatively lower. What this also means is that people are
spending, and this is good. So what we have to do is find the proper
balance between a healthy amount of spending and money in circulation
and an acceptable level of inflation. Economists have placed
"healthy" inflation ant 2 - 3%. This shows spending growth and
expansion, any more and we begin to worry.
Fiscal Policy
Actions
Taxes
Fiscal Policies include raising or lowering of
taxes. If we raise taxes we are taking money out of circulation. When
one considers the impact of taxes one must look at the sector of
society being impacted by the tax hike. Does it impact on the middle
class, working class or upper class. There are differing philosophies
on who should shoulder the tax burden. Some feel it should be the
wealthy while other look to the middle class. The reality is that the
middle class pay the largest amount of taxes overall. Raising taxes
to the middle class will limit consumer spending so if you are going
to do that you had better have a good reason. Clearly raising taxes
will slow down spending, economic growth as well as
inflation.
The question then comes to tax cuts. You must
again ask the same questions. Who do you want to cut taxes too? Who
do you want to encourage to spend? Again, recent economic history
proves that cutting taxes to the middle class is the only effective
way to encourage growth and spending.
Spending Programs
The grand daddy of all fiscal policy spending
programs was FDR's new deal. Knowledge of the New Deal is essential
to understand the importance of government spending, as well as its
shortfalls. As any student of American History knows, the New Deal
did not end the Depression, W.W.II did. It did, however, help to move
the economy along and did help millions of people. Spending programs
pump money into an economy and increase spending and growth. They
also have the potential impact of increasing inflation as more money
circulates in the economy.
Again, when determining what spending programs
to initiate depends on where you want the impact to be. If you build
highways you will create jobs for the working class, same with
housing projects, etc. These types of jobs employ many workers. If
you build B2 bombers, however, less workers are employed at a much
higher cost. Who gets the money here? The large corporation that
builds it does, that's who. So you see, how you spend the money means
as much as how much money you spend.
Spending cuts have the same impact. If you cut
homeless shelter there are people out on the streets. From en
economic impact perspective that may not seem like much but now you
have a human interest issue. If you close military bases you may well
shut down the town that thrives off of the existence of the base.
Some bases employ up to an over 20,000 townspeople with no other
viable means of support. You have to consider the impact and the
location of the base. When the federal government cut funding for the
F-14 Tomcat Fighter built by Grumman on Long Island it had a terrible
impact on the Long Island economy as those highly technical workers
sought to find jobs. Since Long Island is a wealthy suburb of
New York City, however, those workers were more likely to find work
then if the factory had been located in a more rural area.
Monetary
Policy
You can find
information about the Fed's structure on
this site or at the link
above.
The Fed has several policies they can take
through the Board of Governors and the Open Market Committee. Most
often they are led in their actions by the Chairman of the Federal
Reserve Board, a post currently held by Alan Greenspan. The powers of
monetary policy often have immediate and forceful impact so what it
does is closely watched. Every word that comes out of Greenspan's
mouth is seen as a sign for what he thinks of the economy. Entire
businesses exist just to watch the fed and Mr. Greenspan.
I wouldn't be surprised is some economists and investors
consulted psychics to try to gain an advantage.
The Fed's basic monetary policy tools
are:
- Reserve Requirements
- Discount Rate
- Open Market Operations
- Printing Money
Each policy has one basic goal, impact the
money supply. All of these policy actions work using the laws of
supply and demand. The more money in circulation, the more spending
there is and the higher inflation is. The less money there is in
circulation, the less spending there is, inflation decreases. Those
policies that restrict the money supply are known as "tight" and
those that put more money into circulation are known as "loose." Lets
examine each of the policy actions and their possible
results.
Change in Reserve
Requirements
The Federal Reserve System has the power to set
an amount, or percentage, of deposits that its member banks must keep
in reserve at the Fed. If the fed raises its reserve requirements
then banks have less money on hand and thus have less to lend. This
lowers the amount of money in circulation and could have the impact
of slowing the economy and inflation. Conversely if the fed lowers
the reserve requirement , banks have more money on hand, more to lend
and more money goes into circulation, thus increasing spending and
possibly inflation.
Changing The Discount Rate
One of the most important and publicly watched
Fed actions, the discount rate is interest rate that the Fed charges
banks on money the banks borrow from the Fed. Member banks borrow
money from the Fed to pay out loans and other investments but they
must pay a fee, the discount rate. The reason this can be done is
because the Fed acts as the central bank and makes loans to other
depository institutions. These institutions may borrow money from
the Fed because they either have an unexpected drop in their member
bank reserves or because they are faced with seasonal demands for
loans. The discount window is a teller's window at the Fed that
depository institutions use to borrow member bank reserves. For a
bank to obtain a loan, it must agree on the terms of the loan in
advance. Next, the depository institution delivers collateral to the
window. Then the loan is granted and appears as an increase in the
institution's member account. Currently the Fed charges 5.3% and the
banks charge 8.5%-10%. The Prime Lending Rate is lowest rates banks
are allowed to charge their customers. The Prime, as of December 31
is 8.5%. You can check the figures for the discount rate and Prime
here.
If the Fed lowers the discount rate, banks are
charged less for the money they borrow and thus more people borrow.
This increases the amount of money in circulation, speeds up the
economy and increases inflation. Conversely, if the Fed raises the
discount rate this lowers the amount of money in circulation because
fewer loans are expended as the Prime goes up. This slows the economy
and lowers inflation.
Open Market Operations
Open Market Operations are the Fed's power to
buy and sell government securities like T-Bills. The Fed uses Open
Market Operations more than any other tool to regulate the economy.
Most people do not pay attention to this less public action but it is
very effective.
If the Fed buys back bonds it is putting money
into circulation because the money is going from the government to
the people. So if the government buys bonds it increases inflation.
Selling bonds restricts the money supply. If we do this we can lower
inflation rates.
Printing of Money
The simplest and most clear of all the Fed's
operations. The government does not, as a matter of sound economic
policy, print money or destroy money in order to effect changes in
the economy. The power, however to do so, does exist. If the
government prints money it increases the amount in circulation and if
it destroys money it restricts the amount in circulation. This has a
corresponding effect on inflation. To illustrate the possible
negative effects of just printing more money to counter deflation
consider the case of the Weimar Republic in Germany during the
Depression. To counter deflation and pay off reparations debts owed
to France, Germany began to overprint money. This action caused
hyperinflation. Germans saw the value of the Mark plummet as
prices skyrocketed. Shoppers literally carried money in wheelbarrows.
It was worthless.
Applying Monetary and Fiscal
Policies
Think all this is easy...? Try solving this
problem:
It is 1974. The economy is suffering from a
situation economists have referred to as "stagflation." The GNP is
showing a slower than normal rate of increase, an indication of a
sluggish economy. Housing starts are low and unemployment is on the
rise. To make matters worse inflation is quite high.
This problem presents a bit of a conundrum for
economists. Stagflation is a two headed monster. You have inflation
AND a sluggish economy. This is rare but it has happened, as recently
as the mid 70's. The problem is that any action you take has the
reverse effect on the other half of the problem. The answer to the
problem was to deal with inflation first as this is considered more
problematic and eventually leads to less spending. Then we turned our
attention to the recession.
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